Run a Monte Carlo simulation

The Monte Carlo simulation reshuffles your own closed trades many times over to show the range of outcomes your results allow, and how likely a deep drawdown is.

Monte Carlo simulation takes your real trade results, shuffles the order randomly, and runs the sequence thousands of times to see the range of possible outcomes. The idea is simple: the order your trades happened in was just one possibility. If the same trades had occurred in a different order, your equity curve, drawdowns, and final balance could look very different. Monte Carlo shows you all those alternative realities so you can plan for the worst case, not just the one path that actually happened.

Simulation Settings#

Three settings control how the simulation runs. You can adjust these before clicking the run button.

Trades Per Simulation#

How many trades each simulated path contains. By default this matches your actual trade count, but you can reduce it to simulate a shorter forward period or increase it to project further into the future using your existing trade pool.

Number of Simulations#

How many random paths to generate. More simulations give a more accurate picture of the range of outcomes. 1,000 is a good starting point. 5,000 or 10,000 gives very stable results but takes slightly longer to compute.

Confidence Level#

The probability threshold for the reported results. At 95% confidence, the numbers shown represent the worst case that 95% of simulations beat. Available options are 90%, 95%, and 99%. Higher confidence levels produce more conservative (worse-case) projections.

What-If Risk Rules#

What-If rules let you apply hypothetical constraints to the simulation to see how they would have changed your outcomes. These do not affect your real account. They are purely exploratory.

Max Drawdown Cutoff#

Set a maximum drawdown percentage. If a simulated path breaches this level, the simulation stops that path and marks it as "blown." This tells you what percentage of paths would survive a given drawdown limit, which is especially useful for prop firm challenges where breaching a drawdown threshold ends the account.

Max Consecutive Losses#

Set a maximum number of back-to-back losses. If a path hits this many losses in a row, it stops. This shows you how likely you are to experience a losing streak of a given length based on your actual trade results.

Max Loss Per Trade#

Cap the maximum loss any single trade can produce. If any trade in the pool exceeds this cap, it gets clamped to the limit. This lets you model the impact of stricter stop losses without actually changing your trading.

Profit Target#

Set a balance target. If a simulated path reaches this target, it stops and counts as a success. Useful for seeing the probability of reaching a specific profit goal, such as a prop firm payout threshold.

Compounding Mode#

Choose between fixed lot sizing and compounding. In fixed mode, each trade uses the original dollar amount. In compounding mode, position sizes scale with the running balance. Compounding amplifies both gains and losses, so expect a wider spread of outcomes.

Trade Filters#

Before running the simulation, you can filter which trades from your history are included in the pool. Only filtered trades will be shuffled and sampled.

Sessions#

Filter by trading session: Sydney, Tokyo, London, or New York. If you only trade the London session, filter to London-only trades to get a simulation that reflects your actual schedule.

Days#

Filter by day of the week, Monday through Sunday. If you never trade Fridays, exclude Friday trades so the simulation does not include results from a day you plan to avoid.

Instruments#

Filter by specific trading pairs or assets. If you want to simulate only your EURUSD results, select just that pair. This is useful for evaluating whether a particular instrument is worth trading based on its standalone Monte Carlo profile.

Filtering reduces the pool of trades available to the simulation. Make sure you still have enough trades in the filtered pool for meaningful results. A pool of fewer than 30 trades will produce unreliable projections.

Results KPIs#

Simulations Run#

The total number of random paths that were generated. This confirms the simulation completed with the number you requested.

Filtered Pool Size#

How many of your actual trades were included in the simulation after applying any filters. This is the pool of trades that gets shuffled and resampled in each path.

Median Final Balance#

The middle outcome across all simulated paths. Half the paths ended above this number, half ended below. This is a more reliable central estimate than the average because it is not pulled by extreme outlier paths.

Risk of Ruin#

The percentage of simulated paths that hit the max drawdown cutoff and were stopped out. If your risk of ruin is 3.2%, it means 3.2% of all possible orderings of your trades would blow the account under your specified drawdown rules. For prop firm traders, keep this as low as possible.

Avg Max Drawdown#

The average worst drawdown experienced across all simulated paths. This tells you the typical worst-case dip you should prepare for. Your actual drawdown could be higher or lower, but this is the expected range.

Confidence Level#

The probability threshold you selected. At 95%, the reported numbers represent the outcome that 95% of simulations met or exceeded. This is your statistical safety margin.

Sample Paths Chart#

The sample paths chart shows multiple equity curves overlaid on the same axes. Each line represents one simulated path through your trade pool in a random order. The chart typically shows around 50 to 100 of the total paths for visual clarity.

What to look for: if most paths trend upward, your trade pool has a positive expectancy and you should make money regardless of order. If the paths fan out widely, your results are highly sensitive to trade ordering, meaning drawdowns could vary a lot from one sequence to another. If many paths trend downward, your edge may not be strong enough to survive variance.

The spread between the best and worst paths tells you the range of luck in your trading. A narrow spread means your results are consistent. A wide spread means the same trades could produce dramatically different outcomes depending on the order they occur in.

Distribution Histogram#

The distribution histogram shows the final balance of every simulated path as a bar chart. Each bar represents a range of final balances, and the height shows how many paths ended in that range.

Green bars represent outcomes above your starting balance (profitable paths). Red bars represent outcomes below your starting balance (unprofitable paths). A vertical reference line marks your starting balance so you can immediately see what proportion of outcomes are profitable vs unprofitable.

The shape of the distribution matters. A distribution that is mostly green with a small red tail on the left means your strategy is robust and profitable in most orderings. A distribution that is roughly split between green and red suggests your edge is thin and sensitive to luck. A distribution skewed heavily to the left means you are more likely to lose money than make it over the simulated period.

The percentage of paths that end above the starting balance is your probability of profit. If 87% of paths end in the green, there is roughly an 87% chance your trading approach will be profitable over a similar number of trades, assuming your future results resemble your past ones.